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Global Manufacturing PMI

J.P.Morgan - IHS Markit

  Last update  
  5 Nov 2019  
  Global manufacturing downturn eases at start of final quarter  

The global manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth successive month in October, according to the latest global PMI™ surveys. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 49.8 in October, remaining below the neutral mark of 50.0. That said, a third successive rise in the PMI provided a further sign that the downturn may have bottomed out in July.

The latest deterioration in operating conditions was centred on the intermediate goods sector, which saw its PMI drop to a three-month low of 48.8 following falls in output and new orders. PMI readings for the consumer and investment goods industries signalled expansion, with both industries seeing growth of production and new business intakes.

National PMI readings signalled expansion in 13 out of the 32 countries for which October data were available, including China, the US, Brazil and France. European nations tended to fare poorly in the global PMI rankings, with Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria, Poland, Spain and Italy populating six out of the eight lowest positions (along with Russia and the eurozone average).

October saw global manufacturing production edge higher for the second successive month, as inflows of new work stabilised following a five-month sequence of contraction. Global trade flows continued to weigh on manufacturing, however. New export business declined for the fourteenth month in a row. Among the larger exporting nations covered by the survey, Germany and Japan saw new export orders decline – with the downturn especially steep in Germany. The US and China both registered growth.

Global manufacturing employment fell for the sixth consecutive month in October, with job losses registered in China, Germany, South Korea, the UK, Italy, Spain, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Russia, Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic. Input buying activity was also reduced, while inventories of finished goods and purchases both continued to fall.

Price pressures remained relatively contained in the global manufacturing sector during October. Input costs rose to one of the weakest extents during the current three-and-a-half-year sequence of inflation. Output charges fell slightly for the second time in the past three months.

Business optimism staged a mild recovery in October, rising slightly from the series-record lows registered in both August and September. Confidence improved (on average) across both developed and emerging markets, with the overall degree of positivity remaining higher in the latter.



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  Global J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI IHS Markit  


Last updated: Jun 19, 2018

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